Regardless of place, Dean's machine still sets pace

MANCHESTER, N.H. — A defeated air hung over Howard Dean's campaign the morning of the New Hampshire primary. Top staffers were haunted, like survivors of an earthquake, by how quickly the political ground had shifted beneath their feet. No matter how often they replayed the scene in their minds, they couldn't quite believe that Dean had tumbled so far, all because of an intemperate growl during his concession speech after the Iowa caucuses last week.

But by late afternoon, the mood had shifted. Dean apparently was bouncing back to a strong second place behind John Kerry in early surveys of voters leaving their polling places. Suddenly, the Dean high command was quizzing anyone who passed through the lobby of the campaign's hotel, looking for a synonym for "Comeback Kid." That was how a scarred Bill Clinton described himself on primary night in 1992, as he rebounded from the Gennifer Flowers scandal and a furor over his draft avoidance to lose the primary to Paul Tsongas by only 33%-25%.

That's right. Clinton lost here in 1992. Employing political alchemy, the Clinton team turned dross into gold. But for all the press corps' weakness for a dramatic story line, it will be much harder for the Dean campaign to claim vindication with a solid second-place finish to Kerry.

The "Comeback Kid" gambit is now a campaign cliché, and reporters are unlikely to fall for it again. Also, in the curious hierarchy of political disasters, Dean's primal-scream moment in Iowa seems to be judged a more grievous offense than Clinton's sexual escapades. Dean may suffer, too, from being too unorthodox to fit the pundits' image of a would-be president.

It may seem strange to emphasize Dean after Kerry won back-to-back victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. But Dean still controls the tempo of the Democratic contest, even though the odds are dwindling on his becoming the eventual victor. If, as many in the Dean camp expect, the battle for the nomination becomes a state-by-state struggle for delegates, a political war of attrition, the former Vermont governor is likely to dictate the terms. As the insurgent, Dean gets to decide how long and how hard he intends to fight through the primaries.

A few hours before the polls closed Tuesday, the Kerry campaign issued a news release headlined, "Kerry Will Fight for Votes in Every State." Lurking behind the triumphant rhetoric is the reality that Kerry had dramatically narrowed his campaign to concentrate first on Iowa and then on New Hampshire. Now, by proclaiming a national campaign, Kerry takes on the mantle of front-runner and risks being judged harshly if he fails to keep winning.

Dean's dramatic reversal after Iowa and New Hampshire restores him to his position of political maverick. If Dean has the moxie to continue, he will have the capacity to do so, thanks to his Internet fundraising and dedicated cadre of supporters. He can bedevil Kerry all through the February primaries and caucuses in 17 states. In Dean's mind, no Democrat better exemplifies the caution of the Washington party establishment he opposes than Kerry, who has been in the Senate since 1985.

Having won an array of heavy-weight endorsements from Al Gore to such unions as the SEIU (service employees) and AFSCME (public employees), the hard-pressed Dean must keep his coalition together. Not only has Dean been shut out in the first caucuses and primary, but as a New Englander, he has no obvious geographical advantages when seven states, all below the Mason-Dixonline except North Dakota, vote next Tuesday.

It is conceivable that Dean could still be searching for his first victory when Michigan, the largest state to pick delegates next month, holds its caucuses Feb. 7.

There has been some backstairs grumbling by elected officials who signed on with Dean during the dot-com-boom phase of his candidacy, but his union support is holding firm. That was clear from an interview with Andy Stern, the president of the SEIU, a union beguiled by Dean's health care record as a doctor-turned-politician. Stern said over lunch in New Hampshire on Tuesday, hours before the polls closed, "Because our members weren't trying to pick a winner, but a candidate who expressed our interests, we will continue as long as Dean wants to continue and remains viable." Anna Burger, the union's secretary-treasurer, chimed in, "We're not walking away from Howard Dean, nor are our members."

Not long ago, it was routine for presidential candidates to scrap for the nomination right through their party's convention. In 1976, Ronald Reagan lost a long series of primaries to Gerald Ford before roaring back in North Carolina and almost wresting the nomination from the incumbent president. But these days, party leaders are frightened by internal conflict and troubled by uncertainty. That is why it seems likely there will be pressure soon for Dean and the other surviving contenders to withdraw and back Kerry.

But such a drive for unity seems premature, especially with John Edwards and Wesley Clark still hoping to demonstrate their appeal Feb. 3 in the South and West. The topsy-turvy Democratic race is offering some of the most compelling drama in years. Everyone assumed that the candidates would be upstaged by the president's State of the Union address last Tuesday. Instead, reflecting the allure of a wide-open race, it is George W. Bush who momentarily has taken a back seat to the rambunctious Democrats.

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